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The future (or lack thereof?) of the compact disc
The future (or lack thereof?) of the compact disc
I have been asked to serve on a panel at the Music Librarians' Association's Annual Meeting later this month, here in Chicago. The title of the session is:
What’s Next? The Compact Disc as a Viable Format in the Future of Music Recording
In my remarks, I have been asked to address the following three questions:
1. What is the likelihood of CDs ceasing to be a viable format for delivery of recorded music to consumers?
2. If CDs do cease to be viable, what will take their place?
3. How will your professional practices change in response to developments in how music is delivered to consumers?
Obviously, I will need to answer the third question from my unique take as President of Cedille Records. But I have no exclusive insights on the first two questions. I would be very interested to learn what music consumers think about these.
Clearly market share of downloads is going up while CD sales are going down. But is there a limit to this trend? Will CDs be around forever? If so, what percent of the music market will they ultimately command? If not, will it be because electronic delivery completely supplants the need for CDs, or could another mass market physical product for music delivery replace the compact disc?
Are there other questions I should seek to answer in relation to the ones presented above?
Please give me your thoughts on these questions or any other ideas that seem relevant to the topic at hand.
Thanks,
Jim
Comments
Re
Fri, 1/22/2010 - 8:58am — AnonymousFor me personally, there are
Mon, 3/9/2009 - 1:44am — AnonymousFor me personally, there are really only two ways the CD loses viability:
1) Widespread use of a newer physical format (SACD, or whatever) that offers more than two channels. CDs are more than enough to accurately reproduce the performances, but they're limited to two channels. On the other hand, my headphones are only stereo, as are my computer speakers; so I might actually prefer CDs for that reason. I have a hybrid SACD/CD that ripped fine on my computer, so that would probably be ideal; 2 channels for my computer, 5 elsewhere.
2) FLACs, which you have mentioned. While properly encoded MP3s are almost always indistinguishable from the original, there are problem samples here and there; and the harpsichord has proven especially tricky. I'm more comfortable with lossless encoding, and I always rip my CDs to FLAC.
Of course, I'll have no choice if CDs disappear. But there'll be used CDs available for years to come, so I can console myself that way.
Future of the CD
Mon, 2/23/2009 - 1:07am — RFlessnerHi Jim,
Thanks for your post, about which the following observations:
I don't own an MP3 player, and for now the CD remains the way I listen to music. However, I have a tough time thinking of a business model in which CDs have much life left.
So far I have downloaded two albums, both purchased as MP3s from Amazon. The first includes Beethoven's 4th and 5th symphonies, in excellent performances by Thomas Dausgaard and the Swedish Chamber Orchestra. The series appears on the Simax label, for which US distribution is extremely spotty. I had ordered Dausgaard's "Eroica" on CD from MDT in England, but exchange rates pushed the price to well over $20. Amazon sells its MP3 version for nine bucks, which is how I bought the 4th and 5th.
Amazon's downloads are DRM-free.
One problem with CDs is that we no longer have the retail infrastructure to support them. Borders seems to be the only area brick-and-mortar store with significant space devoted to classical CDs, but the section has contracted in recent years and I often walk out without finding anything interesting. Their buyers seem to be wandering in a fog. Compare that to Crow's Nest downtown, which closed a couple years ago and whose buyers were obviously passionate about what they did.
If, as with many retailers, the mission is to cut costs to the bone and move volume, that's just not an effective scenario for a niche market.
I am pleased to see that the mom-and-pop stores that remain seem to be hanging in, good examples being Chicago Digital in Oak Park, Oak Park Records, and 2nd Hand Tunes in Evanston. I also read that within the last couple years, classical CD sales had gone up by 25 percent. I wonder if people stopped buying because the stores were disappearing, then got more comfortable with ordering online.
Then we arrive at the evolution in sound, such as SACD. My understanding is that SACDs are copy protected, and as far as I know, there's no such thing as a downloadable music file with the expanded frequency range or multichannel capability of SACD, at least not yet. It's a moot point for me, since I don't own SACD equipment, but it would appear to be the logical next step for an upgrade.
Dileep makes an excellent point about downloads being more practical for low-volume recordings, and represent a lower-cost way for emerging musicians to publish recordings.
Thanks for listening!
Roland
Future of CDs
Thu, 2/19/2009 - 9:21pm — AnonymousI find that I've been spoiled by a streaming music subscription.
Even if I own the CD, I'll stream it with a few clicks in lieu of picking the CD out of the rack, extracting it from the jewel case (without cracking that brittle styrene,) and loading it in the player for about an hour of play. And assumes I want to hear an entire CD program.
I can accomplish the same without a subscription by "ripping" my CDs onto my PC's hard drive, but I'm too spoiled for that unless the track is unavailable otherwise.
Dave
The Future of CDs - Interesting Topic for Discussion
Tue, 2/17/2009 - 7:10am — AnonymousHello Jim,
Great topic for all of us. In my opinion, CDs will be to downloads like the vinyl LP was to the CD. In other words, it is hard for me to believe that future generations will want to consume music in the CD format.
I say this for several reasons:
1) I watch how my kids purchase music. It is all done through iTunes and never by CD. Their choices are not limited in any way. The packaging material such as booklet with musical notes, lyrics, photos does not seem to have any real value to them - they can get that on line and print it up if they want it.
2) Downloads allow small groups to produce recordings very cheaply and not at 1000 unit minimums. I think that this is important for the classical world where sellling in four digits can often be considered a home run.
3)As portable units become even more prevalent, storage will increase. You can take your entire music library with you and plug it in where ever you go. In the car, on tour, at a hotel, waiting for the train, etc.
It is interesting that most consumers are not concerned with issues around file compression and sound quality vs other formats. And even their concerns may be allayed over time with developments in technology.
I have seen CDs being sold but usually at concerts and for audience members to make an impulse purchase to take their listening experience home with them.
Like the 8-track or cassette tape (remember those?), I have to think that the CD will slowly become part of audio history as technology and consumer behavior marches forward.
Just my opinion....
Dileep
Thanks Dileep
Tue, 2/17/2009 - 9:43am — Jim GinsburgThe advances in technology, I have learned, are there already -- e.g., Free Lossless Audio Codec (FLAC). It's just a question of how long they will take to gain widespread use.
Please give me your thoughts
Thu, 2/12/2009 - 2:27pm — Jim GinsburgI posted these questions on a classical music discussion group yesterday and there have been 120 comments there already, so I know this is a topic of considerable interest. I look forward to learning what ChicagoClassicalMusic.org readers think.
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